We Won't See A Triple Crown This Year

When the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby Uncle Mo dropped out of the race at Churchill Downs because of a gastrointestinal tract problem, it looked pretty dim that the world would see the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed. With Uncle Mo scratched from the field, it looked very unluckily that any horse could pull off three wins at the Kentucky Derby, followed by the Preakness Stakes, and lastly the Belmont Stakes. 

After Animal Kingdom, a 30-1 morning line odds to win the Derby, took home the victory, the chance of the horse coming back and winning even one of the final two races of the Triple Crown seems unlikely. Animal Kingdom's victory was such a long shot that even his trainer, Graham Motion, is skeptic that the horse can come back and win the Preakness. He said, "I never anticipated winning the Derby, so it's a lot to take in. It's an odd feeling to have won the Derby, and then you've got to start thinking about winning the Preakness. It's a little daunting. I'm recovering very slowly. I'm trying to enjoy the Derby before looking at the Preakness. It's all been pretty overwhelming."

Animal Kingdom is not very experienced and is still learning how to run. Since Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978, 11 horses have won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness but failed to win the Belmont Stakes. The average number of lifetime starts for these 11 horses coming out of the Derby was 9.3. Coming out of the Kentucky Derby, Animal Kingdom has made a total of five starts.

Animal Kingdom will also be dealing with a much different course than he did at the Kentucky Derby. The Preakness is much more about speed and tactics than the 20-horse Kentucky Derby. The Preakness seems likely that it will be run at a faster pace than the Kentucky Derby as well. It will be difficult for such an inexperienced horse like Animal Kingdom to stay relaxed behind a faster pace and finish with as much "kick" as he did at the Kentucky Derby.

Long shots who run the Kentucky Derby haven't done too well at the Preakness. In 2005, Giacomo won the Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds but finished in 3rd at the Preakness. In 2009, Mine That Bird won the Kentucky Derby, as the second biggest upset in Kentucky Derby history at 51-1 odds. He failed to win the Preakness Steaks two weeks later.